Thailand 2025: Exports Surge, Tourism Slows — What’s Next for Real Estate?
Thailand in 2025: Exports Rising, Tourism Slowing — What About the Property Market?
The first half of 2025 turned out to be mixed for Thailand. The economy grew by 3% year-on-year — better than expected. The main driver was exports, which surged 15% in six months. Thailand managed to benefit from the reshaping of global trade and took over part of the orders from its neighbors.
But the picture isn’t flawless. The tourism forecast was revised down from 35 to 33 million visitors. For a country where rentals and hotels feed millions of families, this is a worrying signal. Another issue is household debt: Thai loans have already surpassed 90% of GDP.
The economy is moving forward, but risks in the second half of the year are higher than one would like.
Exports as a lifeline
Рост экспорта помог сгладить внутренние слабости. В страну зашли валютные потоки, компании получили новые заказы. В индустриальных районах это чувствуется буквально: заводы работают на полную, открываются вакансии, растут доходы работников.
Для рынка жилья это косвенно значит больше покупателей на вторичке и долгосрочной аренде. Но если смотреть глазами инвестора из России, то важнее другой фактор — не фабрики и офисы, а туризм.
Для рынка жилья это косвенно значит больше покупателей на вторичке и долгосрочной аренде. Но если смотреть глазами инвестора из России, то важнее другой фактор — не фабрики и офисы, а туризм.
Tourism: a plus and minus at the same time
33 million tourists instead of the expected 35 is technically a drop. Yet compared to 2023 (around 28 million), the flow is still higher.
How do property owners feel it?
In reality, it’s more of an adjustment of expectations. For the rental market, this isn’t a catastrophe but a reminder: demand is not infinite, and choosing the right location — near the beach, with infrastructure and management — is crucial.
How do property owners feel it?
- apartments that used to rent out in three days may now sit empty for a week;
- hotel occupancy is slightly lower, restaurants report weaker revenue, motorbike rentals suffer in low season;
- but on a yearly level, numbers remain positive: tourists keep coming, just at a slower growth rate.
In reality, it’s more of an adjustment of expectations. For the rental market, this isn’t a catastrophe but a reminder: demand is not infinite, and choosing the right location — near the beach, with infrastructure and management — is crucial.
Household debt
Thai households are used to living on credit. Cars, gadgets, appliances — all financed by loans. As a result, household debt has exceeded 90% of GDP, one of the highest in Asia.
For domestic demand, this is a problem: families save more, take fewer mortgages, and buy housing more cautiously. But for foreigners, this can be an opportunity — developers are more willing to attract international buyers to offset weaker domestic demand.
For domestic demand, this is a problem: families save more, take fewer mortgages, and buy housing more cautiously. But for foreigners, this can be an opportunity — developers are more willing to attract international buyers to offset weaker domestic demand.
What foreign investors see
For Russians and CIS buyers, an investment window is opening. When local demand softens, developers offer installments, discounts, and flexible terms.
The standard format: down payment of 20–30%, the rest in equal payments until completion. No interest, minimal paperwork. In effect, installments replace mortgages.
So the news about high Thai household debt sounds to foreigners like an invitation: “Come in, conditions are favorable for you.”
The standard format: down payment of 20–30%, the rest in equal payments until completion. No interest, minimal paperwork. In effect, installments replace mortgages.
So the news about high Thai household debt sounds to foreigners like an invitation: “Come in, conditions are favorable for you.”
Russia vs. Thailand: two different worlds
Comparing the two markets shows the contrast clearly.
In Russia, the housing market depends heavily on subsidized mortgages. When rates go up, demand drops sharply. Rental yields rarely exceed 4–5% annually, and that’s in rubles.
In Thailand, mortgages are almost inaccessible for foreigners. But tourism fills the gap. Even with the reduction from 35 to 33 million tourists, rental yields in Pattaya and Phuket remain at 7–10% annually in foreign currency.
In simple terms: in Russia, returns come from resale or state subsidies, while in Thailand they come from constant tourist demand.
In Russia, the housing market depends heavily on subsidized mortgages. When rates go up, demand drops sharply. Rental yields rarely exceed 4–5% annually, and that’s in rubles.
In Thailand, mortgages are almost inaccessible for foreigners. But tourism fills the gap. Even with the reduction from 35 to 33 million tourists, rental yields in Pattaya and Phuket remain at 7–10% annually in foreign currency.
In simple terms: in Russia, returns come from resale or state subsidies, while in Thailand they come from constant tourist demand.
Example calculation
Seaside studio in Pattaya, 30 m², price 3.6M THB (~$100,000).
Total profit: 1.5M THB ($39,000). That’s 8% annual yield in foreign currency. Even if tourism drops by a couple of million visitors, this figure will barely change.
- monthly rent: 23,000 THB (~$620);
- annual rental income: 276,000 THB (~$7,400);
- price growth in 3 years: +20% (~720,000 THB).
Total profit: 1.5M THB ($39,000). That’s 8% annual yield in foreign currency. Even if tourism drops by a couple of million visitors, this figure will barely change.
FAQs
Will apartment prices fall if tourism slows?
No. At most, price growth will slow down.
What’s the current yield in Pattaya?
Around 8% annually from rentals, plus 20% price growth in three years.
How does it differ from Russia?
Russia depends on mortgages; Thailand depends on tourism. Even with fewer tourists, demand holds.
Is it worth buying in the second half of the year?
Yes. New developments rise 1–2% monthly, so the earlier the entry, the higher the gain.
What are the main risks for foreigners?
Choosing the wrong location. Properties far from the sea and without infrastructure rent out much worse.
No. At most, price growth will slow down.
What’s the current yield in Pattaya?
Around 8% annually from rentals, plus 20% price growth in three years.
How does it differ from Russia?
Russia depends on mortgages; Thailand depends on tourism. Even with fewer tourists, demand holds.
Is it worth buying in the second half of the year?
Yes. New developments rise 1–2% monthly, so the earlier the entry, the higher the gain.
What are the main risks for foreigners?
Choosing the wrong location. Properties far from the sea and without infrastructure rent out much worse.